The Last Stand.
Saturday in CoMo, Missouri’s football team will dig in to protect the home field, mount a successful resistance against Texas A&M to repel the nation’s No. 3 team, and come away with a season-saving victory.
Missouri’s goal for a spot in the College Football Playoff has largely faded through the failure of losing two of the last three games. But hope – however faint – is still there.
According to the FPI at ESPN, the Tigers have a modest 9.9% chance to survive a four-game gauntlet just for a shot to secure an invitation to the 12-team tournament. As of Friday afternoon, 23 FBS teams had better odds than Mizzou to make the playoff.
Is this doable? Factually, yes. Theoretically, sure. Realistically? Well, hold on a second. One defeat will mean, at minimum, a three-loss season and unofficially eliminate Mizzou.
To safely get through the danger-desperation zone, the 6-2 Tigers must take down the final four teams on their SEC schedule: Texas A&M (home), Mississippi State (home), and then road games at Oklahoma and Arkansas.
The FPI gives Mizzou a crack of 8.5 percent chance to win out … and projects a final regular-season record of 8-4.
That wouldn’t make the cut for the playoff and the Tigers would be relegated to solid bowl-game status. And at that point the Eli Drinkwitz Watch will intensify. Will the Mizzou coach depart his post for a larger and more prominent platform at Penn State, Florida or LSU?
Enough with the preliminaries and the hypotheticals.
Now it’s onto the hazard posed by Texas A&M, and I’ll move the ball around like an old quarterback operating out of the Run & Shoot offense. Remember that?
Scary overview from a Mizzou-fan perspective: The Aggies are the best team in the best conference in college football and easily could be ranked No. 1 in the land. A&M does have a tendency to let opponents to hang around, but like a big cat pouncing on a mouse with a claws-first ambush, the Aggies have outscored their last four victims – Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas and LSU – by a 96-38 margin in the second half. The Aggies are basically very good at everything, and Mike Elko is a terrific coach.
And if history really matters … Mizzou is up against it. From the time Gary Pinkel became Missouri coach in 2001, and all the way through MU’s residency in the SEC, the Tigers are 2-19 vs. Top 5 teams. They beat No. 2 Kansas 36-38 in the instant classic played at Arrowhead Stadium late in 2007, and upset No. 3 Oklahoma 36-27 in CoMo back in 2010. It’s been a while. Missouri has lost 12 consecutive games to Top 5 teams. That includes an 0-11 failure in games against Top 5 ranked opponents (all in the SEC) since entering the conference in 2012. I guess Mizzou will have to score 36 points to win this one. You know, just like those MU teams did when flattening Kansas in 2007 and Oklahoma in 2010.
On the other hand, Texas A&M had some weird stuff in the schedule while building its 8-0 record. Four of A&M’s four victories have come against teams that fired their head coach this season. Only two of A&M’s eight opponents currently have winning records, including Notre Dame. The Aggies are 5-0 in SEC games, with every victory bagged against teams that presently sit with losing records. The prey – Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas and LSU – are a combined 6-20 in conference matchups. Texas A&M had close-call wins over Arkansas and Auburn, trailed LSU at the half, and permitted Mississippi State to hang around until late in the 3rd quarter. See, I’m making the effort to show you that Texas A&M does have some vulnerabilities. Well, maybe.
OK, smart guy, what about other sources of hope for Mizzou? Well, I got something for you. Pro Football Focus – which does an outstanding job of analyzing college football – actually gives Missouri a higher overall performance grade than Texas A&M this season. MIZ is ranked 5th among the 68 power conference teams, and A&M is 9th. There’s more.
* Season grade on offense among the 68 power teams: Mizzou ranked No. 7, Texas A&M at No. 20.
* Season grade on defense among the 68 power teams: Mizzou ranked No. 5, Texas A&M ranked 16th.
* Season grade on special teams among the 68 power-conference squads: Missouri ranked 10th, A&M ranked 15th.
I don’t know that I buy into that, but I do respect PFF and so it’s fine to take note of the surprisingly pro-Mizzou grades.
So, Bernie, you’re saying there’s a chance for the Tigers? It sure seems that way. The Sportsline projection has Texas A&M winning by three points, 28-25. Over at SP+, the forecast model has a 28-27 win for the Aggies. Close!
What about some betting angles that tell us a little something? In games pitting two ranked teams since 2017, the home teams have a 66.5 percent winning percentage straight up and a 59.5% success rate against the spread. Also: Texas A&M is 6-12 straight up and 5-12-2 against the spread as a road team since 2021. If you’re looking for something more recent, Texas A&M is 4-4 against the spread this season, and 3-4 ATS as the betting favorite. The line on this game is wavering ranging from Mizzou being a 7-point underdog or a 6 and ½ point dog. The quants, who wait for line shifts, are throwing down on Mizzou.
View from an expert: Here’s what Jeff Hochman said about this matchup, and Jeff has been on a recent hot streak with his professional wagers.
Mizzou true freshman quarterback “Matt Zollers is a four-star prospect ranked 72nd nationally and 8th among quarterbacks in the 2025 class … Missouri relies heavily on Ahmad Hardy's rushing attack, averaging 244.9 yards per game, with Hardy providing over 50% of their offense.
“Both teams are coming off extended rest. The bye is not ideal for undefeated teams in November as the pressure mounts. SEC home teams are 51-33 against the spread this season. I like the home team here.”
Another view from an expert: Matt Youmans (VSIN) is taking Missouri and the points in this game.
“It seems that most of the college football experts across the country have written off Missouri after the Tigers lost QB Beau Pribula for the season to injury in their loss at Vanderbilt. For anyone who saw that game, you know that Mizzou didn’t miss a beat with backup Matt Zollers in. Truthfully, Pribula, while a loss in terms of stability, didn’t give this team a whole lot more than what Zollers should, as the latter is actually the higher-rated recruit.
“Plus, what makes this Missouri team very good is its defense, as it has not allowed anyone over 31 points and is yielding 16.8 points per game on average. That, by itself, should make them a dangerous home dog … I expect Missouri to be in this game for the entirety. It would seem that DraftKings does too, since the line has moved down despite (strong) backing on the road favorites.”
BERNIE’S KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Missouri’s offense needs to stop the slide. Now. Or forget about winning Saturday.
The decline is a real thing and not just about facing a more difficult schedule. That’s when the true test comes – when you play the big boys. And Mizzou’s offense has a helluva lot to prove since moving into SEC play.
— In Mizzou’s four non-conference games they averaged 49.3 points, 570 yards, 294 yards rushing, 5.9 yards per rush, 277 yards passing, 79% completion percentage, 8.8 yards passing per attempt, 173.5 passer rating, 9 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions.
— In Mizzou’s four conference games: an average of 21.5 points, which ranks 12th among the 16 SEC teams. They’re averaging 116.4 fewer yards rushing per game in the SEC. The MU passing game, which feasted on weak defenses early on, has taken an awful turn in facing SEC teams. In SEC-only games Mizzou ranks 15th in passing yards per game, 15th in passer rating, 14th in yards per passing attempt, 14th in completion percentage. And the turnover ratio has flipped, with Mizzou managing just four TD passes in four SEC games while flipping five interceptions.
2. Mizzou must help the young Zollers by doing two obvious things.
(A) revive a sluggish rushing attack, and that’s possible against Texas A&M. MIZ cannot afford to set up third down and long situations for Zollers. And (B) obviously the Tigers have to give Zollers solid pass protection. I’m not freaking out over the young dude’s inexperience. Zollers looked poised in the emergency at Vanderbilt. More than that the Tigers did not have a downfield passing attack with Beau Pribula, but Zollers has the arm to hit for air strikes.
But Mizzou ranks 11th in the conference in pass protection in SEC-only action. And the Aggies come in with a formidable pass-rush surge that causes considerable disruption. A&M has the second-best sack percentage among the 68 power conference teams.
3. Throw the damn football to true freshman wide receiver Donovan Olugbude.
Mizzou is wasting the young man’s immense talent, and I’d hate to see Olugbude leave in the transfer portal to go to a place where a team will, well, you know … THROW HIM THE BALL.
According to Sports Info Solutions, among Mizzou receivers and tight ends that have been targeted for at least 10 passes this season, Olugbude ranks No. 1 in expected points added per target, No. 1 in yards (12.5) per route, No. 1 in success rate (66.7%), No. 1 in big-play rate (37.5%) and No. 2 in yards per target. All of this on only 24 targets and 17 receptions. And Olugbude has great hands; his 94.4 percent catch rate for on-target passes is second to Kevin Coleman Jr. among Mizzou receivers.
4. Can Mizzou’s pass rush stay red hot, or will the excellent Texas A&M offensive line cool it down?
Missouri’s defense continues to perform at a high level with no real drop-off in SEC play. MU’s pressure rate on quarterbacks (46.5%) is No. 1 among the 68 power-conferences defenses, and the sack rate is 6th. But here’s the thing: Texas A&M’s pass protection is rated No. 2 among the 68 power-conference offensive lines; that’s based on a key metric (points added above average) at Sports Info Solutions.
5. It’s imperative for Mizzou’s offense to perform well on third downs.
This isn’t an easy assignment because the Aggies have the toughest third-down defense among the 68 power teams. In SEC games opponents have only converted 14.5 percent of their third-down opportunities against Texas A&M, and the Aggies have allowed fewest yards on third down (165) by a power conference team this season. The Aggies are ranked No. 1 among the 68 power teams in EPA per play on third down plays. And 43.5 percent of the third-down plays used against the A&M defense were categorized as “busts” by Sports Info Solutions.
6. Mizzou must limit the potentially devastating impact of Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed.
Among SEC quarterbacks that have attempted at least 100 passes this season, Reed ranks third in passer rating, second in yards per pass attempt, and third in yards (14.0) per compilation. Reed’s average of 290 yards total per game – passing and rushing – is the 9th most by a power conference QB. And Reed has accounted for 13 touchdowns from scrimmage with his strong arm and elite speed.
The problem with Reed? Even when a defense gets pressure on him, Reed ranks 3rd among power-conference quarterbacks in passer rating when under duress.
7. Finally, can the Missouri defensive backs avoid getting burned by Reed’s effective work on play-action passes?
This is a big one. Texas A&M has scorched defenses by faking handoffs, then launching downfield throws to wide open receivers. When Reed goes with the play fake, he’s hit on 41 of 63 passes for an adjusted average of 14.5 yards per attempt. He has the nation’s highest TD pass percentage (17.5%) on play-action passes, and has carved up defenses for 11 touchdowns and just one interception on A&M’s most effective passing play. And because of the rugged A&M offensive line, Reed has been sacked just one time when going into the play-action mode. Overall Reed’s passer rating on play fakes is third best by a power conference QB. And Reed is especially lethal when he goes with the play action on first down.
For what it’s worth, I have Texas A&M winning by six points. But unless Mizzou’s offense crashes again, the Tigers should have a chance to pull out a win.
Thanks for reading and I hope you have a splendid weekend … if you missed yesterday's column on the Cardinals, click HERE!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and Randy Karraker.