It really is the most wonderful time of the year, and the holiday festivities include the grand opening of the national college football playoff, otherwise known as the “CFP” or “No Invitation For You, Notre Dame.”
Hopefully by kickoff time in each of the four games this weekend, no head coach has left his post to jump to another job for more loot … and what is the contingency plan if 25 players from each CFP squad decide to enter the transfer portal three hours before game time?
That won’t happen – not this year, anyway – so let’s enjoy the game. That’s the only plan I have this weekend: watching Alabama at Oklahoma on Friday night. Three more games on Saturday, beginning with a spicy late-morning matchup pitting Miami deep in the heart of Texas A&M headquarters. Not only that – but Saturday’s lazy-day viewing pleasure includes two NFL games … and then an entire Sunday of NFL action.
Here’s my look at the four opening-round college games, and betting-line information is provided by our associates at DraftKings sportsbook. Make sure to download the app and have some fun; you can wager without leaving the recliner or couch. As long as you are holding a mobile phone and wireless, you’re in the game!
ALABAMA (9) AT OKLAHOMA (8)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday, STL time.
Records: Bama 10-3, Oklahoma 10-2
Point spread: Oklahoma favored by 1.5.
MoneyLine: Bama minus 105, OU minus 115.
Over-under total: 40.5 combined points.
I’m surprised to see so much of the investment money rolling in on Oklahoma considering that the Sooners went to Alabama on Nov. 15 and upset the Crimson Tide 23-21. And now Oklahoma has the home-field advantage in the rematch game. Which also looms as a revenge game for Bama. If Oklahoma could win at Tuscaloosa, in Tide territory, then why wouldn’t the Sooners do it again in Norman?
Alabama backers would point to several things:
— The unlikely repeat of Oklahoma having a 3-0 edge in turnovers on this one. That was the Crimson Tide’s fatal flaw in the first clash against the Sooners. Those three disastrous Alabama turnovers determined the outcome, even though Bama had a 23-12 advantage in first downs, and outgained the Sooners 406-212. Quarterback Ty Simpson passed for 325 yards and a touchdown in that game, but was pressured 13 times, sacked four times, threw an interception, and lost a strip-sack fumble that set up OU’s winning field goal.
— After winning eight straight games including a rugged 4-0 stretch against ranked opponents, Alabama was a worn-out team in that frustrating loss to the Sooners. And Bama wasn’t exactly buzzing with energy in getting bullied by Georgia in the SEC championship. The Crimson Tide comes into this game after a two-week break, and the rest has recharged them mentally and physically.
— The Oklahoma offense is among the worst in the nation among the Power 4 conference teams. Based on Pro Football Focus grading, the Sooners are ranked 51st among the 68 power teams in overall offense, 56th in rushing offense, and 58th in passing offense. The Sooner offense averaged a modest 21.5 points per game in SEC play, and that won’t get them far in the CFP. Quarterback John Mateer hasn’t been the same since suffering a broken bone in his right thumb against Auburn in late September.
— Except for a mediocre pass rush, the Alabama defense has played very well, ranking 10th overall including 15th against the run and 19th in pass coverage. Oklahoma has a great defense, but the Sooners gave up an average of 31 points in back-to-back games against Ole Miss and Tennessee. Unless Mateer and the dormant OU offense ignite, the Alabama defense has an easier assignment in this one.
Is there a betting angle? Yes. According to handicapping analyst Steve Makinen, ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses are 63-24 straight up and 54-32-1 against the spread (62.8%) in the next game since November of 2021. This trend applies to Alabama.
Intel from Pro Football Focus: Ty Simpson was harassed late in the campaign after opponents dialed up the blitzes to put heavy pressure on him. From Week 7 onward, Simpson was blitzed on 45.5% of his dropbacks while producing a pedestrian 58.2 PFF passing grade in those scenarios. His nine turnover-worthy plays versus the blitz are the most in the nation in that span. Three of those turnover-worthy plays were forced by OU coach Brent Venables’ blitz-crazy defense. In their win at Bama, the Sooners blitzed Simpson on 32 of his 48 dropbacks in Week 12, and he posted a poor 46.6 passing grade versus the blitz. And Georgia blitzed Simpson nearly 60 percent of the time in blowing out Alabama in the SEC title match.
Bernie’s Pick: One wild-card factor is Mateer. He’s had some extra time for his thumb to heal, so will he be more capable of success in throwing downfield instead of sticking with the short passing game? And he’s an effective runner. Alabama will struggle to run the ball against OU, so this wrestling match will come down to Ty Simpson’s composure and efficiency. I’m assuming the Alabama coaching staff will have a new and improved plan to handle the Oklahoma blitz. Alabama can’t afford to turn it over two or three times again. With Oklahoma’s limited offense, Bama doesn’t need to score a lot of points to win this one. I see the Crimson Tide scoring enough to knock off the Sooners and move on. I'm taking Alabama and the 1.5 points.
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MIAMI (10) AT TEXAS A&M (7)
Kickoff: 11 a.m. Saturday, STL time.
Records: Miami 10-2, Texas A&M 11-1.
Point spread: Texas A&M favored by 3.
MoneyLine: Miami +130, A&M minus 155.
Over-under total: 47.5 combined points.
Analysis: This appears to be a really good matchup for Miami, but I don’t trust the Hurricanes because I don’t trust head coach Mario Cristobal to maintain his poise, avoid freaking out on the sideline, and getting his teams into jams with incompetent in-game decisions that often blow up. Cristobal may be the No. 1 key to the outcome; can he keep his head and make the decisions under pressure? But the Hurricanes do have some matchup advantages.
— Miami has a superb rushing attack, engineered by a powerful offensive line and a cast of talented running backs. And Texas A&M is vulnerable against the run. As Pro Football Focus points out, the worst part of the Aggies’ run defense – stopping inside zone or gap runs – happens to be the strength of the Hurricanes’ physical ground game. Texas A&M has allowed 5.5 yards per carry this season, which is the sixth worst run-stop rate among the 68 Power 4 teams. And A&M is even weaker against those inside zone and gap runs. This is also potentially ominous: Texas A&M has given up an average of 4.0 yards after contact.
— Miami’s pass rush ranks second in the nation, and that defensive line is supported by the 12th best pass-coverage rate in the nation. This could be a huge factor. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, a gifted talent, is still relatively inexperienced, and he hasn’t functioned smoothly under pass-rush heat. According to Pro Football Focus, Reed has a 76 passing grade when setting up in a clean pocket (good!) But Reed has a 47.8 passing grade (bad!) when pressured. But here’s an interesting twist: Reed has been awesome when blitzed. That seems contradictory because of his shakiness under pressure. But when blitzed, Reed is smart, and quick and on target in getting the ball to his “hot” receiver. And Reed has an excellent feel for taking off and dodging and racing past blitzers. The numbers tell us that Miami should probably rush four men, and force Reed to diagnose what he’s seeing from the seven defenders set up in coverage. Reed
— Texas A&M has a fast and furious defense that rattles quarterbacks. (Ask Mizzou about that.) But Miami QB Carson Beck has one of the fastest releases in the nation and can neutralize the pass rush by unloading the ball quickly. And Beck has a phenomenal asset in wide receiver Malachi Toney, who leads Power 4 teams in yards after the catch. And about that pass rush: According to Pro Football Focus, Toney leads the Power 4 with 40 catches and 322 yards on screen passes.
My biggest question: Is Texas A&M trustworthy? That seems like a strange question, considering their 11-1 record. And this a team that won early in the season at Notre Dame, and that was a big deal at the time. But keep this in mind: Texas A&M’s seven SEC wins came against opponents that collectively went 9 and 39 in conference play. Late in the season the Aggies had to rally from a massive early deficit at home to beat lowly South Carolina. Two weeks later, the Aggies were shoved around in a loss to rival Texas. And Miami looked strong down the stretch, beating four consecutive ACC opponents by an average of 27.5 points.
Bernie’s Pick: I’ve been arguing with myself all day with this one. I think Texas A&M has slipped late in the season. And as I mentioned, the Aggies’ SEC schedule was as soft as the banana pudding served at C&J Barbeque in Bryan, Texas. But … Miami couldn’t even qualify for the ACC championship game, which is ridiculous, because the Hurricanes should have dominated that circuit. The last time Miami went on the road to the state of Texas they screwed up a lead and lost at SMU. There’s also the Mario Cristobal factor. And the imposing home-field setting at the A&M’s gigantic stadium in Bryan. I’m probably going to regret this, but I’m going with A&M to win and cover. Despite all of the nice things I said about Miami, I’m banking on my belief that excellent Texas A&M coach Mike Elko spruced up his team during the time off and will outmaneuver Cristobal.
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TULANE (20) AT OLE MISS (6)
Records: Tulane 11-2, Ole Miss 11-1.
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday, STL time.
Point spread: Ole Miss favored by 17.5 points.
MoneyLine: Tulane +65, Ole Miss minus 1000.
Over-under total: 57.5 combined points.
Analysis: Just a little bit of a warning: The Green Wave is a much improved team since getting stomped in a 35-point loss at Ole Miss on Sept. 20. Lane Kiffin was still the coach. Now he’s at LSU. And at the time of the game, Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff was still getting acclimated to the Green Wave’s offense after transferring from BYU. I don’t think Tulane will win this one, but can the underdogs cover the 17 and ½ point spread? That spread is five points higher than it was when Tulane played in Oxford earlier this year. This surprises me.
Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has been hired to take over at Florida – but he stayed with his team for the playoff … even if it’s only for one game. This means a lot to the Green Wave players.
Does Kiffin’s transfer impact this game? Or will the Ole Miss players have extra motivation to show they don’t need Kiffin around to excel? Are the Rebs fired up to win one, and win it big, for Pete Golding, their new head coach who was elevated from his post as the defensive coordinator?
OK, so then I spotted this gem from the brilliant handicapper-analyst Steve Makinen.
“If you believe in my coaching systems for bowl games, first-time bowl/playoff game head coaches (like Golding) have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 46-64 straight up and 45-63-1 (41.7%) against the spread vs. non-first-year coaches! Tulane also has a rich history of being a gritty underdog against big conference teams and has been in Big 6 bowl games on big stages before.”
Bernie’s Pick: Retzlaff and redshirt freshman running back Jamauri McClure have sparked the offense during Tulane’s current five-game winning streak. And Retzlaff is good at picking apart zone coverages. But when these teams met on Sept. 20, Golding bothered Retzlaff by playing a lot of man to man coverage and going with the blitz. I suppose we’ll see that again.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has the third-best passing grade among Power 4 QBs on deep-ball passing attempts (20+yards) this season. And in the first meeting, Chambliss burned the Tulane defense by hitting on five of his six deep-ball passing attempts. And it should have been 6 for 6 but one perfect pass was dropped. According to Pro Football Focus, Tulane ranks 115th among FBS teams in defending deep passes. The Ole Miss super combo of Chambliss and big-play running back Kewan Lacy is too much for Tulane to handle. That said, this is a weird game for Ole Miss and so I think I’ll go with Tulane to lose but cover the 17 and ½ point spread.
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JAMES MADISON (24) AT OREGON (5)
Records: JMU 12-1, Oregon 11-1.
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. Saturday, STL time.
Point spread: Oregon favored by 20.5.
MoneyLine: JMU +1000, Oregon minus 1800.
Over-under total: 46.5 combined points
Analysis: Is there a chance that Oregon will overlook and underestimate James Madison U? I do not think so. In Oregon’s last 11 games at home against non-conference opponents and favored by 19 points or more, the Ducks are 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. And all 11 wins were double-digit margins. In a matchup somewhat similar to this one, Oregon clobbered upstart Liberty 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl played on New Year’s Day in 2024. Ducks coach Dan Lanning ain’t the complacent type. And this season's defense is better than the Lanning defense that routed Liberty.
Bernie's Pick: If you’re thinking that just maybe James Madison will cover that 20 and ½ point spread, here’s some info to consider. In the Sun Belt championship, James Madison let Troy hang around and led by only three points before scoring two late touchdowns for a 31-14 win and the Sun Belt conference championship. Plus, the Dukes are just 4-5 against the spread in their last nine games. And their head coach, Bob Chesney, will disembark after this loss to become the new head coach at UCLA. The pick is Oregon to cover the spread in a beatdown.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy your weekend…
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.