Game Information
Missouri Tigers (8-4) vs #19 Virginia Cavaliers (10-3) - Gator Bowl
Time: 6:30pm CT Saturday
How to watch: ABC
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Mizzou -4
Total: 43.5
The Missouri Tigers are in Jacksonville to take on the #19 Virginia Cavaliers in the Gator Bowl tonight.
The Tigers are going for a 9-win season and will start true freshman Matt Zollers at quarterback after Beau Pribula entered the transfer portal earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers fell just short of the College Football Playoff after losing the ACC Championship Game in overtime to Duke but should be motivated with a chance for their first 11-win season in program history.
If I had to pick a winner in this game, I would lean with Virginia. Missouri appears to be more impacted by opt-outs and transfers, and I think Virginia will have the motivational edge.
I’m not confident enough in that though to make that an official bet. Instead, I want to attack the prop market in this game - specifically Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy.
With Zollers at quarterback and a thin wide receiver room, I expect the Tigers to feed Hardy time after time if they are having some modicum of success running the ball. And Mizzou should be able to do exactly that against a good but not dominant Virginia defense that ranks 5th in the ACC and 21st in the country against the run.
As of the time of this writing the morning of the game, we are still waiting for DraftKings to release the player prop markets for this game, so keep an eye out for the odds to be released. The market suggests Hardy's rushing yards prop will be posted in the 120's. That would be a big number, but I’m comfortable placing a standard-sized wager on him going over. This has been a special season for Hardy, and expect him to finish it in style with a coaching staff that I think knows feeding their All-American running back is Mizzou’s most likely path to victory.
Lean: Virginia on the moneyline at +154
Pick: Ahmad Hardy over on his rushing yards prop (bet to 134.5 on DraftKings)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer