I’m not sure if there’s still a ban on NFL talk in the St. Louis area, so I better be careful here and not draw too much attention. But the divisional-round playoffs are my favorite weekend of the NFL season … even better than the two conference championships and the Super Bowl.
In the divisional round, there’s more action, more desperation, more teams that have a shot, more detours and a football nation of emotionally-charged fan bases …
And eight starting quarterbacks.
America is a quarterback nation, and NFL quarterbacks are scrutinized more than any position in U.S. professional sports. They are heroes or villains. They are royals and bums. They are everything … or nothing at all. They’re huge celebrities and sports-culture icons … or scrubs and guys who should go live in a van down by the river.
And in the postseason, these snap judgments are rendered after every hut-hut of the football. Win or lose in the postseason, the quarterback will be venerated in victory and degraded in defeat. And it doesn’t matter if the credit or blame is warranted.
Here’s how I’d rank the eight quarterbacks left standing in the 2025 season, and they’ll be slinging this weekend to get their teams into the conference championship round.
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo. Since the 1970 merger, among NFL quarterbacks that have attempted at least 300 postseason passes, Allen ranks third with a 102.4 passer rating – and only Patrick Mahomes and Kurt Warner have topped that. Allen’s impressive postseason profile includes 26 touchdown passes (with only 4 INT.) And his 701 rushing yards and nine TD runs are both No. 1 on a list of 32 quarterbacks. Critics will point to Allen’s 8-6 postseason record and note that he’s never won an AFC title to advance to the Super Bowl. Shaddup. Allen’s six postseason losses were to Patrick Mahomes (4), Joe Burrow (1), and the elite version of DeShaun Watson (1). Without Allen the Bills would be, say, the NY Jets. Can Allen take down the AFC’s top-seeded team in Denver? I don’t know. But I do know this: he’ll all but die in the process of trying … and if Allen doesn’t play like a superhero, the Bills will get avalanched by the Broncos.
2. Matthew Stafford, Rams. He’ll be 38 next month and already has a Super Bowl ring and a league MVP in his collection at home. It’s been a helluva career, and Stafford has a great chance to claim a second MVP award for his regular-season play in 2025. And Stafford was named All-Pro for his outstanding work this season. But Stafford also has four one-and-done playoff exits, and he’s competed in only one conference championship game. Stafford’s 6-5 mark isn’t great, and how many chances does he have left before limping into retirement? Gonna be freezing in Chicago this weekend, and Stafford has struggled in blasts of winter weather in the great outdoors. But he deserves to be ranked second on this list because he’s got a Lombardi Trophy.
OK, now this is where the arguments start.
3. Brock Purdy, 49ers. He gets dissed for being a “game manager,” but it’s funny how he manages to make so many big plays when the postseason pressure chokes so many other quarterbacks. Dude has a 30-15 record in the regular season, a 5-2 record in the postseason, and his postseason passer rating is virtually the same as Joe Montana’s. Big, comeback road win at Philly last weekend. And that urban jungle ain’t real friendly to visiting prospects. Two seasons ago, Purdy fought Mahomes through four quarters and into overtime … The Niners kicked a field goal on the first possession of OT, but the San Francisco defense couldn’t stop Mahomes from throwing the game-winning touchdown pass. I think the Niners are in trouble in their division-round battle at Seattle … but Purdy can do enough to win if Seahawks QB Sam Darnold blows up and offers a victory gift to an NFC West rival.
4. Caleb Williams, Bears. Yeah, dammit, I’m living in the moment. But let’s think about this. Given that this dynamic, supremely confident second-year quarterback has already air-lifted the Bears to SEVEN comeback victories in the last two minutes of a game this season; that’s the most in a single season in league history. Williams rises above his own mishaps to play at his best when just about all hope is lost … Well, ain’t that enough to put Chicago’s best quarterback since Sid Luckman in the top half of this postseason quarterback bracket?
Sports Info Solutions rates Williams as the league’s fifth-best QB this season in performance during the fourth quarter and overtime. In those fourth quarters or OT, Williams has 10 touchdown throws and two interceptions and has rushed for 129 yards and nine first downs. After knocking out the hated Packers in the wild-card game, can Williams pass and run the Rams back to LA?
5. Drake Maye, Patriots. The Texans are coming to Foxboro for the division-round clash, and New England’s second-year quarterback won’t be trapped and rendered immobile by Houston’s ravenous pass rush. In other words, Maye won’t be the mummified Aaron Rodgers. (It was almost morbid, watching Rodgers turning rigid as if frozen in place during the blowout loss to the Texans in the wild card.
Maye is still a relative newbie, with only 30 starts on his NFL resume. But this season the Patriots are 15-3 with Maye at quarterback and he’s done a lot more than go along for the ride. He’s been doing the driving. During the regular season topped the NFL with a 72% completion rate, passes for 4,400 yards, and vaporized pass coverage for 31 touchdown throws. He’ll likely be a runner-up to Stafford in the MVP vote. We’ll see.
Including the wild-card win over the visiting Chargers, Maye has zig-zagged through defenders for 516 yards rushing and four scores. That said, Maye had a bad first half against the Chargers before settling down to shred the visitors for a 142.0 passer rating in the second half. The Patriots prevailed 16-3 but Maye was sacked five times overall. Can the Texans get to May enough times to leave Foxboro with an upset win? Maye is a gamer, and his talent is obvious.
6. Bo Nix, Broncos. Denver relies on defense and coach Sean Payton’s clever play-calling on offense. But Nix is coming on. He’s turning into a playmaker, has a knack for coming up big on third and fourth downs – which is important because the Broncos have competed in 13 games this season that were settled by a one-score margin. According to Sports Info Solutions, Nix is a top-three quarterback (based on the metrics) on third-and-fourth down plays. That includes the No. 1 ranking in points earned per play and points above average on 3rd-4th downs. He can operate from the pocket, but he can make plays on the run. And his interception percentage is only 2%. His all-around pass-run skills accounted for 30 touchdowns this season. And Nix ranked third among NFL quarterbacks in the “big time throws” metric. He’s 0-1 in the postseason, but so what? Nix, in his second NFL season, has evolved into a confident quarterback and leader. Dare I say he’s underrated?
7. C.J. Stroud, Texans. I think he’s a really talented quarterback. But Stroud, a three-year veteran, has plateaued. Over his last two seasons Stroud has been intercepted 20 times, and his 39 touchdown passes don’t offset the many mistakes including too many oopsie fumbles. Stroud’s success rate over the last two seasons is a mediocre 43.6 percent, and in Monday’s wild-card win at Pittsburgh the shaky QB fumbled five times and lobbed an interception. The Houston defense won that game … just as it has many times over the last two-plus seasons.
8. Sam Darnold, Seahawks. Let’s make one thing clear: Seattle’s defense strangles opponents to force the submission and the outcome. The NFC’s top-seeded team makes one request of Darnold: don’t screw it up for us, or we may come and knock you out of the game instead of the other team’s quarterback.
Darnold was awful for the Vikings in his first career postseason game (and loss) last season. He held onto the ball, got sacked nine times, and turned the ball over twice. Darnold was the quarterback for Seattle’s 14 wins this season, and he did pass for 4,000 yards for the second straight campaign. But Sam (maybe) The Man has to prove he can win when it matters. And the postseason matters. The Seahawks have helped him with an effective rushing attack … but, sheesh … over the last two seasons Darnold has been picked off 26 times, and during the 2025 regular season he fumbled more times (11) than any player in the league.
MOVING ON …
Nolan Arenado, Historical Perspective: Where does Nolan Arenado’s fantastic 2022 season rank among Cardinals who played at least 70 percent of their games at third base in a season during the modern era? I explored the StatHead search engine and here are the three best individual seasons for a STL third baseman since 1900, based on the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement:
1. Scott Rolen, 9.2 bWAR, 2004.
2. Ken Boyer, 8.0 bWAR, 1961.
3. Nolan Arenado, 7.9 bWAR in 2022.
Note: Using WAR as our measure, Boyer produced six of the top 10 seasons by a third baseman in Cards franchise history. Again, I’m focusing on full-time third basemen and not part timers or utility men.
In addition to 1961, Boyer’s other five seasons of accruing at least 6.0 WAR came in 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, and 1964. The Top 10 list also includes Pepper Martin (1933) and Whitey Kurowski (1947.)
I use WAR because it accounts for all areas of performance by a position player: offense, defense and base running.
Among full-time third basemen from 1956 through 1964, Boyer was second in bWAR (55.0) to Eddie Mathews (60.6). That’s an excellent career-peak performance that covered nine full seasons.
Tell me again. Why isn’t Boyer in the Baseball Hall of Fame?
THE NOLAN ARENADO TRADE:
VIEWS FROM THE OUTSIDE
— Patrick Dubuque, Baseball Prospectus:
“This is one of those situations where Arenado isn’t really doing anything wrong, and that’s the problem. There’s no easy fix here, no obvious approach change to try or flaw to repair. That’s because there’s no easy fix to being 35 years old.”
Referring to the decisions made by the Rockies and Cardinals to trade Arenado and eat a lot of money in the process, Dubuque added:
“It’s rare, even in these hyperefficient times, for a player to be the target of two salary dumps, specifically ones separated by periods of success … and also the victim of two teams going into rebuilds. It shouldn’t be a reflection on Arenado’s performance, or career, but we all know it will be.”
— Andy McCullough, The Athletic:
“If Arenado wants to be enshrined in Cooperstown, his upcoming tenure with Arizona could play a pivotal role,” McCullough wrote. “With St. Louis hankering to shed Arenado’s contract, the Diamondbacks are taking a relatively low-cost flier on a player who was once one of the best in the game. What does he have left? Arenado has a borderline resume for the Hall of Fame … but he has faded considerably across the past three seasons. As Arenado enters his age-35 season … his days of hitting 30 homers may be over, but Arenado may benefit from leaving Busch Stadium for the more hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field.”
— Tim Capurso, Sports Illustrated:
“On the financial side of things, the Cardinals will be on the hook for $31 million of Arenado’s remaining $42 million in the final two years of his contract,” Capurso wrote. “The figure is a bit misleading, though. $6 million of the Cardinals’ portion is in deferred payments from Arenado’s 2019 extension with Colorado, meaning St. Louis is actually on the hook for roughly $25.5 million over the next two years, according to Cot’s Contracts.
“Plus, that $6 million isn’t due to be paid out until 2040-41, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This might seem like small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. But given how much the Cardinals are on the hook for, any bit of short-term salary relief helps.
“Trading Arenado was like ripping off a Band-Aid, but St. Louis’s rebuild has been kicked into high gear after the deals of Arenado, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray. And with a promising farm system, this teardown might not be as painful as it seems.”
— Sam Blum (The Athletic) gave the Cardinals a “B+” grade on the Arenado swap:
“On paper this looks like a bad deal for the Cardinals,” Blum wrote. “But we also don’t know how hamstrung they were by Arenado’s no-trade clause. Ultimately, they recoup some cash, get a lotto ticket prospect, and move forward with an opening for prospect JJ Wetherholt at third base. It’s a tough $31 million to swallow, but those are the inherent risks of acquiring players with massive contracts. Their value was front loaded, and Arenado was an All-Star his first three seasons in St. Louis. They made the right deal for them regardless of what happens. Arizona hopes it can say the same.”
— ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle posted a “C” grade for the Nado trade:
“What really is there to say? You can't even call this a salary dump because the Cardinals are picking so much of Arenado's tab,” Doolittle wrote. “This was just the last (or next-to-last, depending on the fate of Brendan Donovan) exercise of Chaim Bloom's offloading of veteran contracts, and the talents that earned them.
“St. Louis is now likely to begin the 2026 season without a single player on its Opening Day roster who is at least 30 years old. This trade, more than anything, is more like the checking of a box than anything else. But it had to be done.”
Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic, on the possibility of a trade that would send the Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan to Boston:
“Donovan figures to be less appealing to the Sox, who already feature a surplus of left-handed hitters,” KR wrote. “The team wants to create an opportunity for one of those players, Marcelo Mayer, at second or third base. Mayer, 23, had only 136 plate appearances last season before undergoing season-ending right wrist surgery.”
Rosenthal reported that the San Diego Padres also pursued Arenado, but …
“With Manny Machado entrenched at third, the Padres intended Arenado to play first base,” Rosenthal wrote. “
The holdup, according to those briefed on the talks, was that the Padres were unwilling to take on as much of Arenado’s salary as the D-Backs. And it’s not as if the D-Backs took on a whole lot – the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to pay $31 million of Arenado’s remaining $42 million over the next two years while receiving minor-league right-hander Jack Martinez in return.”
The ultra busy Rosenthal had this nugget …
“The Diamondbacks, before acquiring Arenado, were in the market for a right-handed hitting first baseman/DH. Their preference now might be more left-handed, and they want to keep the DH spot open.
“But they still could use a platoon partner for Pavin Smith at first base. Free agent Paul Goldschmidt, a member of the Diamondbacks from 2011 to ‘18 and teammate of Arenado’s with the Cardinals from 2021 to ‘24, continues to loom as a potential fit (because) he is still a force against lefthanded pitching.”
(In his final season in St. Louis, combined with his only season with the Yankees, Goldy, now 38 years old, hammered lefties for a .315 average, 911 OPS and a wRC+ that was 52 percent above league average offensively.)
Thanks for reading …
And as always, please pardon my typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.